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Monday, November 12, 2007

Shorting Oil & Gas

The ongoing subprime mortgage woes and credit crunch has thrown some substantial hits to the market. All types of stocks have come down considerably including the hot momentum ones like gold, technology, solar, etc. People are selling off to lock in profits after a nice recovery from the August correction. I also took profits by selling some of my holdings on the first day of this ongoing correction which stands at 3 days. The QQQ was overbought, but until it showed weakness, I maintained a hold position because it had yet to breakdown from its rising channel. Eventually it started to flatten out and roll over which was a signal to take profits in case the market goes down on a potential reversal. A lot of good stocks were getting crushed on earnings, even the ones who exceeded expectations. I decided to leverage my portfolio as well by shorting the QQQ and DIG. The every so hot stocks such as GOOG, RIMM, AAPL, BIDU were getting ahead of themselves both on a fundamental and technical level. Their PEG ratios exceeded 2.0 with the exception of Google and the charts were going parabolic. When they break down, they often fall down hard. I bought the QID (inverse of QQQ) at $37.20 expecting to break the 50 dma which it did and then exited the position at $40.30 when my stop got triggered. It was oversold so I didn't re-enter the position and I also thought it would retest the 50 dma. The risk/reward was not in my favor to continue. However, crude oil has had an incredible run also and is the only thing that hasn't come down yet. I got in early by purchasing DUG at $39.84 and I still am holding it as a swing trade. $43 is my target to complete an inverse head and shoulders pattern. I am watching JASO as a bounce play near $50 for today or tomorrow as I expect it will touch soon.

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