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Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Potential Inverse Shorts: FXP, QID, DUG, SKF, EEV

I think the first resistance level is $187-90 for the FXI or $75 for the FXP, but entering a short here would need a wide stop I think. I doubt the 50 dma will cause a bounce either way. I'm hoping for the FXI to hit the declining 20 dma near $200 and then I would short it by purchasing FXP with a tighter stop. Of course with the added volatility of a double inverse fund, the potential losses when shorting this Chinese index could be devasting even with a tight stop. I'm long in a some individual Chinese stocks as a hedge.

The QID should be worth a tight stop entry at the 50 dma or $38.35 which would preceed a gap fill left from November 8th. Otherwise I expect the 20 dma at $32 to be the next support level.

Oil & Gas has been going back and forth in both price and volume as of late. I'm kind of undecided, but one can look for a bounce for DUG at $41 as the 20 dma looks to be forming a golden cross over the 50 dma. Oil might reverse however so DUG is the most speculative short IMO.

I like shorting the Financials if we open near the 20 dma at $88.25 on SKF. A gap below and I look for $85 as support followed by the 50 dma at $82.50. Should these levels fail, then I think we would have seen a bottom in the Financials. Until then, I'd go long SKF since the subprime woes aren't completely over yet.

The emerging markets should find resistance at $160. Buy EEV near $70 with a stop at $69.50.

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