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Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Another Good Day as the Market Gains Momentum to the Upside

The S&P 500, we have been consolidating in a 1460-1490 price channel for the past 5 days and we closed today near the highs. I think short sellers were close to taking us lower intraday with the head and shoulders formation, but the neckline did not break as the bulls stepped up in the last hour to rally us up. Tomorrow, I think the momentum will carry us up to test 1490-1500 which would trigger the shorts to defend once again. If we gap above, this would really scare the bears and would be bullish. It is possible we trade sideways and stay in this tight price channel, but I think we have consolidated enough. I'm still sitting 20% on cash and may use it to rebuy FXP or DUG at support.

E*Trade was being a pain in my portfolio once again. It went from a high of $4.10 all the way down to $3.49 before reversing back up to close at $3.79. To make matters worse, I put in an order at $3.55 after the bounce but just missed it. It's trading in a $3.50-6.00 channel and I'm not too worried about my small position at $4.65. Just wish I could've got more off the bounce.

I got stopped out of LDK at $45.98 after an incredible run up these past 5 trading sessions. I repurchased shares on the selloff at $42.93 and sold half at $44.85 as a scalp while holding onto the rest for tomorrow's action. I'm in LDK for the long haul and have been holding at least some shares since October.

As a momentum play, I bought KUN on the intraday pullback at $7.03 and sold 20% into the rally at $7.35. This stock can really run up big as the charts show in the past. Last time when the stock approached the 50dma, it island reversed lower 20-25%. Last time when the stock broke and closed above the 50 on momentum, it went up 400%. I like the risk reward and I have a have small position which I will scale out of.

I got stopped out of CTDC at $6.90 for a nice swing trade gain. It has potential to continue up, but I don't like the setup for a swing trade. I'll keep an eye on it to see if the momentum picks up after it consolidates a little.

Still holding onto FRPT which closed at the midpoint of the day $10.57. The volume was less today, but significantly higher still in the last 30 or so trading sessions. I think the shorts are starting to cover more and more of their position as institutions drive the prices up. $10.42 will be my stop right underneath a pivotpoint. I expect $11.80-12.00 will show resistence and a break above on good volume should send prices to fill the gap up to $14.75.

ESLR was a break even trade for me today. I bought the stock at $14.01 and was stopped out at $14.22 for half my shares and stopped out at $13.89 for the rest.

And finally as I pointed out about my decision to close my FXP position yesterday, the risk/reward of the market dropping was not very good. The bears took the market down ever so slightly and also on diminishing volume. As a result, I went long on some depressed stocks due for a bounce while holding onto 20% cash. In hindsight, this turned out to be a very good move since FXP gapped lower from $72.10 to $66.65 at the open and closed at the day's low of $63.70. Had I not exited the position in favor of 20% cash, my day's profits would've been wiped out.

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